Single Family Market Update: Sales Dip Seasonal, Rates Stabilize, Builder Price Cuts Rise, Foreclosures Climb (2026.02.14)

About This Episode

• Existing home sales fell 8.4% in January to 3.91M annualized, lowest pace in seven months
• Inventory declined 0.8% to 1.22M homes, pushing months’ supply down to 3.7 from 4.2 in December
• Median price rose nearly 1% year-over-year, marking 31 consecutive months of annual gains
• Housing affordability index improved for the seventh straight month, signaling demand support beneath seasonal slowdown
• Mortgage rates dipped slightly to 6.09%, first decline in three weeks but still range-bound near 6%
• Purchase applications down modestly while refinance activity remains elevated year-over-year
• Rate environment remains stable with no clear catalyst for meaningful near-term declines
• Nearly 1 in 5 new homes saw price reductions, overtaking resale price cuts for first time in recent history
• Builder-heavy markets including Texas, North Carolina, and South Carolina seeing elevated new construction discounting
• Fix-and-flip operators should underwrite against discounted builder inventory as primary competition through first half of year
• Foreclosure filings up 32% year-over-year but remain historically low relative to pre-pandemic norms
• Distressed inventory pipeline building gradually, with meaningful supply unlikely to materialize until late 2026 or early 2027