Single Family Market Update: Basel Reform, Rates Stabilize, Inventory Slows, Builders Compete on Efficiency (2026.02.16)

About This Episode

• Federal Reserve Vice Chair Michelle Bowman signaled Basel capital rule changes that could bring banks back into mortgage origination and servicing
• Bank mortgage share fell from ~60% in 2008 to 35% by 2023, while nonbanks gained dominance in investor lending
• Proposed changes to mortgage servicing asset treatment and LTV-based capital rules could increase bank competition in DSCR and rental lending in late 2026
• Mortgage rates holding near 6.04% with spreads compressing toward historical norms, helping stabilize borrowing costs
• Refinance activity remains elevated year-over-year while purchase applications show steady but muted demand
• Ten-year Treasury yield testing lower end of forecast range, limiting odds of meaningful near-term rate declines
• Active housing inventory up 8% year-over-year but growth has cooled significantly from 30%+ earlier in cycle
• New listings rebounding seasonally while price-cut percentage declines, signaling stabilizing seller pricing power
• Slower inventory growth suggests incremental tightening before headline data reflects it
• Beazer Homes reached 100% Zero Energy Ready Home standard across deliveries and expanding solar-powered communities
• Builder competition increasingly centered on operating cost savings, not just purchase price or incentives
• Energy-efficient upgrades becoming competitive necessity in Sun Belt and builder-heavy markets