Single Family Market Update: Rates at 6.01%, Refi Surge, Builder Financing Improves, Rent Growth Compresses (2026.02.23)

About This Episode

• Mortgage rates fell to 6.01%, down eight basis points week-over-week and lowest since early January
• Refinance applications jumped 7% weekly and are up 132% year-over-year, signaling active borrower response near 6%
• Purchase applications dipped modestly while VA purchase activity rose
• Refinance window open for DSCR and bridge loans originated at higher 2023–2024 rates
• Single-family housing starts declined 6.9% year-over-year in 2025, reflecting continued construction pullback
• Builder confidence slipped to 36, while share of builders cutting prices declined month-over-month
• Acquisition, development, and construction loan rates fell to 7.61% in Q4, lowest since 2022
• Builder financing costs improving even as sentiment softens, creating selective competition in builder-heavy markets
• Housing inventory rising into spring with price reductions still elevated relative to historical norms
• Single-family rent growth slowed to 2.7% year-over-year, with affordability improving to four-year highs
• Rental yield compression tightening DSCR underwriting and limiting BRRRR refinance upside
• Construction wage growth stabilizing alongside lower financing costs, improving cost structure for ground-up and heavy rehab projects